Max gambling! 4x SPY ETF!!!

Bank Street, Canary Wharf, London, 10/12/23

🤯

As 2023 winds down what were your ytd returns. 2022 was terrible 2023 better for me. I switched brokerage in the middle of 2021so the ytd is not completely accurate on the chart for that year. Would be great to see how everyone else did this year for comparison.

https://imgur.com/gallery/kym7R8R

Some loss porn for you fucks … maybe honestly around a 60k loss all together within about 3 weeks.

Hey there fellow regards. It’s been quite a journey the last few years. I started trading while in college during COVID, turning what was just originally a few thousand into about $300K over two years by going on margin long and short on COVID-affected industries like airlines, cruise ships, shopping malls, pharmaceuticals, and some tech stocks like Zoom, and then of course riding meme stocks up and down until my brokers restricted trading meme stocks and I turned to options, blowing my then-$300K account in about a week. Undeterred and having developed a firm passion (or addiction), I’ve been reading dozens of books and experimenting with a variety of strategies, from making careful entries and exits to idiotic YOLO impulse moves, from gut feelings to careful analyses. I do a little of them all now, though the regarded and emotional (revenge) YOLO moves keep doing me in, usually at times when I’m convinced I’m right and the market is (temporarily) wrong about something and I just start impulsively buying instead of exiting with moderate losses. This mistake wiped me out two months ago on an oversized bet on BABA calls after I first gained recognition here for making $5K a day (and then $10K and later $20K a day; maybe should’ve stuck with $5K). The very same sort of mistake happened again Thursday when I saw Uber, after entering the S&P, showing overbought signals on the RSI and Stochastic lines and a bearish MACD crossover, and triggering my experimental tools for double top, rising wedge, and head and shoulders patterns on several time frames, all while the price impulsively raged higher as if to test my hubris. Who knows, the signals may have been right and it may drop next week as if to spite me, but as John Maynard Keynes once said, “Markets can remain irrational longer than you can remain solvent.” Truth.

Friday was rough, no doubt. I was awake at 4:30 AM watching premarket activity, and things were looking good for my expiring UBER puts after the jobs report triggered bearish initial reactions, but everything reversed upward as soon as the market opened, and I didn’t have time to get out. There were about 10 seconds right at 9:30 when my puts were up, but I doubt there was enough liquidity to sell everything, and I froze as the prices rose with renewed (baby boomers?) buying. I have a few big takeaways that came with the pain, including the advice people here gave me to move to Robin Hood to avoid fees on large volume options trades, even as I’ll be probably staying away from such trades for a little while. The good news (good at least for everyone’s ongoing entertainment and for r/thetagang’s loyal business) is that I do still enjoy trading immensely (or am pleasantly addicted to it); moreover, I’m lucky to have a Wendy’s job that pays me well enough to continue funding my education and (gambling) habit. My upcoming year-end Wendy’s bonus is also usually quite large, and I think everyone can guess what I’m going to be doing with it, though I promised myself to break it up into several trades and space out my moves. Furthermore, since there seems to be a bit of interest in following my struggles and triumphs, I may go make a new Reddit account completely devoted to trading. Feel free to DM me for the details or to help me pick a username that’s not randomly generated by Reddit like this one is. Also looking into Discord, if anyone has suggestions of channels to join or ideas for creating a new one.

Going forward, my strategy will be evolving over time and hopefully will eventually become less YOLO and more stable and analytical. But in the meantime, I’m still going to be continuing many high risk / high reward moves while developing and refining my techniques. You’re welcome to bet against me that I won’t change and will keep blowing up my account; time will tell. Assuming I do improve my ways, the goal would be to become consistently profitable through hedging and risk management and continue to refine the quantitative techniques. Some may ask me at this point why I don’t just try to go work at a hedge fund. And actually, some Wall Street firms, including Jane Street, D. E. Shaw, Two Sigma, and Citadel, do actively recruit students and alumni from research programs I’ve been to; those programs were how I had a chance to meet Jerome Powell and ask him questions you all suggested (see the last photo I attached from when I was sitting in that meeting). However, I’m not so sure I’d like the culture working at one of those places (they’re covered a bit in the new book Going Infinite about SBF, as well as some of Michael Lewis’s other books I’ve been reading), and a lot of people consider them evil, so I’d rather do my own self-directed trading for now with paychecks from the Wendy’s I know, as opposed to the one I don’t. I just hope this won’t become my villain origin story.

Besides working on decisiveness to take gains and cut losses and more self-control with the impulse revenge buying, I’m planning to start automating the entering and exiting of trades more in order to remove the human error element (alongside some automated risk management), as well as potentially incorporating some machine learning techniques while I learn them in my part-time masters degrees in math and computer science. There are a lot of interesting differential equations and probability theory ideas that come into play with derivatives trading and hedging, and I’ve been reading about the origins of statistical arbitrage strategies in mathematician and hedge fund manager Edward Thorp’s autobiography, A Man for all Markets. While the inefficiencies his fund was exploiting at the time are no longer as viable since everyone started to understand them, I’m certain there are other opportunities in today’s markets that can be found with enough research and experimentation. I had taken a break from reading his books a few weeks ago when my trades started making lots of money again, but I think I should get back to them now. I also realize WSB is just a bunch of regards hanging out behind a Wendy’s and not an official exchange for rigorous academic discourse, but I see enough insights here to stick around for the interesting discussions alongside the insults, memes, and regrets. So once again, feel free to comment or DM if you’re interested with suggestions for Discord or ideas for a new username, or whatever compliments or insults you want to throw at me. Always the best compliments and insults, of course, are when the market tells us we’re right or rubs it in when we’re wrong; “the market is always right.” Happy trading!

Hopefully my kids get an academic scholarship at this point 😂

https://www.businessinsider.com/consumers-willing-risk-recession-for-lower-prices-2023-12

Many folks are cheering on the idea of a recession if it could mean lower prices.

Both the stock market and crypto are rapidly climbing. Maybe a bit more rationally this time at least when it comes to stocks.

If I learned anything in 2021 it’s don’t try and time the market, particularly when and where the peaks and valleys will be. Invest for the long haul.

But geez do things seem frothy all of the sudden.

Puts or calls for monday?

Trading Session (Fast forward):

https://reddit.com/link/18fg5y6/video/9tbqt0xbuj5c1/player

Analysis:

https://preview.redd.it/q194x3uwpj5c1.png?width=1496&format=png&auto=webp&s=ea74c2f6984bbacec603fa8022e485866151eeb5

I built this algo, well sort of but a prepackaged one but I did configure the parameters.

Elements:

1. It has trailing stop loss for each trade
2. It reverses the position after certain loss streak, Here I set it as 1, so after each loss it went from long to short and short to long otherwise as long as profits pouring in it keeps placing same single side of trade.
3. It has trailing stop loss for daily profit/Loss so, it captures and stops out when it dips from certain height. When it started dipping from max 1400 to 950, the bot stops out.

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$VIX 12 , $SPX 4600 two scenarios : either rally to all time high , or rejection out of surprise...

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Hello fellow traders and gambling addicts,

I figured I’d post my own degenerate trade after watching YT videos detailing other bad trades on WSB. For a few weeks before Thanksgiving, had been trading about $24,000 on SVIX and VIXY, and didn’t do so well…. Made some, then lost. So I did what any idiot would do and gambled it on QQQ and SPY puts.

On the Wednesday before Thanksgiving, I had had enough and put the entire account (about $16,000 remaining) on same day SPY $455 strike puts while SPY was hovering around $455.50. By the time I stopped buying and was maxed out, the account balance was down to $9000 with 90 minutes left of trading…before annihilation and/or Robinhood sold it for me.

Then… in a complete stretch of unearned luck…. The Robinhood Trading gods smiled on me and SPY temporarily crashed to $454.20, which more than quintupled the options I had from around $0.12 to $0.80. I sold piece by piece and eventually made back everything plus more in the span of about 180 seconds. Pictures of that are below.

Lessons learned. Currently $6k on SPY and QQQ puts. No more gambling the whole account. I don’t deserve to still have this money, I just got lucky. Good luck gentlemen.